Last week brought another edition of the Flood Insurance Rate Maps. FEMA announced on October 29 that it was releasing new preliminary flood maps for Montgomery County, Maryland. Click here.
It has been 14 years since the last flood plain map was created and the good citizens have seen substantial changes in that period. Montgomery County's planning arm sets forth in its 2007-2009 report that the population has boomed over the last thirty years with an anticipated increase of 14% this decade, the fastest growing in Maryland. Click here.
The effect of all this growth is telling. "Several factors—including sustained job and population expansion, declining supplies of greenfield space, and land use policies favoring in-fill and transit-oriented development—have reinforced this pattern of concentrated development in recent years. Growth, density and mixed-used development are transforming former commuter suburbs into increasingly more urban-like environments." So with all that change, re-doing the flood plain maps is necessary, and overdue.
Unfortunately, these maps are outdated even as they are issued. This is not simply because additional development affects them. It is because they do not consider climate change. This bears repeating. The FEMA flood maps do not consider climate change. And it is not just some blogger saying it. The Delaware River Basin Commission wrote in 2009: "Future development and the impacts of climate change are not taken into account during the development of FEMA flood hazard area mapping." Click here.
Why is this significant? One of the fundamental predictions of climate scientists is that climate change is going to deliver more extreme weather. In the Northeast, for example, there will be more frequent storms and more severe storms. It should be obvious that these will increase the frequency of flooding and the 100-year flood will now become the 50-year flood or the 25-year flood. As most know, the FEMA flood map shows the 100-year flood plain. Inside the flood plain, certain construction requirements are imposed, and flood insurance is required of all who would be involved in federal programs (such as loan guarantees from Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac). Outside the 100-year floodplain, neither condition applies. Accordingly, if the 100-year floodplain is inaccurately set forth, numerous properties just outside the erroneous line are more likely to be subjected to a flood than the occupant or owner anticipates, and are more likely not to have flood insurance.
If this sounds like a recipe for disaster, it is. The spring floods in Nashville caused over $1 billion in damage. FEMA reported only 100 National Flood Insurance policies in the the entirety of Davidson County (where Nashville is located).1
Why so few? Because no one believed they were in the flood plain. This mentality is only going to get worse, particularly if FEMA publishes flood maps without pointing out that it is ignoring an undeniable substantial factor: climate change.
1 Jeff Casale, Significant losses expected after floods soak Nashville, Business Insurance (May 10, 2010).